Leon Furze's new post applies Narayanan and Kapoor's "AI as normal technology" framework โ from their book AI Snake Oil โ to GenAI in education, and the argument is both reassuring and clarifying. The core claim: GenAI is following the same three-speed adoption cycle seen in every previous technology wave. Invention (the R&D) is moving fast, driven by investment and hype. Innovation (building actual products) is moving at market speed. But adoption โ the social, organisational, and pedagogical integration that makes a technology genuinely useful โ moves on a timeline of decades, not years.
The critical insight is Furze's application to schools: "the technology might be ready in a year or two, but the organisation, the school system, the hospital, might need 10-20 years to really figure out how to use it effectively." This explains why the internet, despite being commercially available in the early 1990s, wasn't meaningfully embedded in most classrooms until the 2010s โ a roughly 20-year lag. MOOCs, digital textbooks, and every edtech wave before GenAI followed the same hype-then-slow-diffusion pattern. The exhaustion educators feel right now is therefore not a failure of imagination or energy โ it is the rational, predictable response to hype operating at invention-speed while their institutions move at adoption-speed.
Furze argues this framework offers both relief and caution. Relief: there is no need to panic that your school hasn't fully restructured around AI in 18 months. Caution: the genuine risks (privacy, equity, cognitive effects on students) deserve slow, evidence-based engagement rather than either wholesale adoption or reflexive bans.