Phase 4a Assessment — 2026-05-03

VERDICT: CONTINUE
Soak window: 2026-04-27 → 2026-05-03 (7 days under v2 prompt)
Briefings analysed: 7 (perfect daily completeness)
Plan reference: latest briefing · archive · prior assessment
Assessment was scheduled to fire 2026-05-03 but the one-shot task was never registered (operator-side gap during account transition). This assessment was run interactively on 2026-05-14, covering the originally-intended 7-day window. Phase 4a continued running through 2026-05-14 — current state files reflect the full 18 days, which gives additional confidence beyond the formal soak window.

Rollup metrics

MetricValueNotes
Daily run completeness7 / 7All v2 briefings present
Total Top Stories published58avg 8.3 / day
Daily Top Stories: min / median / max7 / 8 / 10floor enforced
Days at 7 (force-fill activated)1 (2026-04-27)Day 1 — no carryover yet (expected)
Days at 8+6healthy organic distribution
Days under 70floor never breached
Update: prefix count (all sections)42 Top Stories (Musk-OpenAI trial); 2 Alerts (Israel-Lebanon URGENT bypass)
Carried over from in Top Stories3genuine promotions
Carried over from in Also Noted12de-facto continuity tag
Continued from (suppressed Top Story candidates)11dedup-demoted to Also Noted

Per-day breakdown

DateTop StoriesAlertsUpdate:Carried (Top)Carried (Also)Continued
2026-04-27730000
2026-04-281001 (Musk-Altman)031
2026-04-29831 (Musk-Altman day 2)052
2026-04-30800043
2026-05-01901 (Israel-Lebanon ALERT)103
2026-05-02821 (Israel-Lebanon ALERT day 2)000
2026-05-03840202
Total5812431211

State file health (current snapshot 2026-05-14)

MetricValueThresholdStatus
story_memory.json entries72retention 7 days × ~8–10/day✓ in range
Oldest date2026-05-07≥ today − 7d✓ pruning works
Entries older than 7 days00
carryover_candidates.json entries11≤ 20
Max age_days5≤ 5✓ at cap
Entries with age_days > 500
Entries with current_rank < 2.000
State file corruptionnone observednone

The state-file snapshot is from 2026-05-14 (18 days of Phase 4a operation). The design's invariants are about retention/pruning/decay behaviour rather than time-of-snapshot, so the later snapshot is actually a more demanding test — and the system passes it.

Spot-check candidates

A. Suppression candidates (false-positive risk)

All 11 Continued from items spot-checked. None look like false-positive suppression. Sample evidence:

Result: 0 false-positive suppressions observed.

B. Update: candidates (false-positive risk)

Result: 0 false-positive Update: republishes.

C. Carryover candidates (staleness risk)

15 Carried over from markers total. Max age observed in soak window = 1 day.

Result: 0 stale carryovers in soak window. Max age 2d vs. 5d cap.

D. Force-fill activation

Result: Force-fill activated exactly once, on the structurally-expected day.

Checklist

Success criteria

Failure signals

Side observations (do not block CONTINUE verdict)

  1. Marker CSS class inconsistency. The Continued from marker renders with multiple class names (continued, continued-from, continued-marker, also-continued) and text format varies (_Continued from {date}_: vs Continued from {date}:). Cosmetic only — doesn't affect dedup logic. Could be tightened in a future prompt iteration. Not a Phase 4a issue.
  2. Step 5 MENA cap exceeded on 2026-05-03 (4 MENA Top Stories vs. the 2-card cap). Step 5 diversity-rule violation, independent of Phase 4a. Driven by genuine MENA news density. Worth noting for a future Step 5 review.
  3. Beyond the formal 7-day soak, the system has continued through 2026-05-14 (18 days). Today's run produced an Update: republish on the Trump-Xi-Iran cluster — same mechanisms still working at day 18.

Verdict and reasoning

CONTINUE. Phase 4a is working as designed.

The seven-day window shows the system doing exactly what improvements (a) and (c) were specified to do: same-story content gets demoted (11 Continued items + 12 Carried-Also-Noted markers across the week, with the full Musk-Altman trial saga being a textbook example), genuine updates surface with the right prefix (Musk-Altman day-2 testimony; Israel-Lebanon URGENT bypass days 1 and 2), and high-rank stories from packed days survive to slower days as Top Stories (3 carryover promotions over the week, all justified). The 7-story floor was enforced cleanly: 1 force-fill on Day 1 (structurally expected), 6/7 days at the natural 8–10 range. State files are healthy — pruning works, decay works, no zombie entries, no corruption.

No failure signals fire. No false-positive suppressions in spot-checks. No Update: prefixes on stale content. No state-file growth pathology. The minor marker-class inconsistency is cosmetic.

Phase 4b — the deferred single-source non-urgent hold queue — should now be built. Phase 4b reuses the fingerprinting infrastructure proven out here, adds a 2-day hold with URGENT bypass, and is the final piece of the briefing-continuity axis. Design is already locked from 2026-04-26; implementation is mechanical.

Next session prompts

Pick one decision prompt and paste verbatim into a fresh RSS Smart Agent Claude Code session. The CONTINUE branch unlocks the Phase 4b build.

Decision Prompt A — CONTINUE (build Phase 4b)

Phase 4a assessment returned CONTINUE. Read assessments/phase4a-2026-05-03.md for the evidence.

Now build Phase 4b: hold queue for single-source non-urgent stories. The design decisions are already locked from 2026-04-26 — see the Phase 4b section of SYNTHESIS_DEPTH_PLAN.md. Summary:

- Hold window: 2 days. Stories with cluster_rank ≥ 4.0, only 1 RSS source, and NO alert get held.
- URGENT bypass: any alert (critical/elevated/monitor) skips the hold and publishes immediately.
- Suppression during hold: held stories appear NOWHERE in the briefing (not even Also Noted) — they're delayed, not surfaced as "coming soon".
- Promotion: each run, promote held stories whose hold_until has expired OR which gained a second RSS source today (whichever comes first). Promoted stories enter the normal candidate flow, including Phase 4a dedup.

Implementation:
1. Add a new state file pending_stories.json (gitignored) — array of held stories with hold_until ISO date.
2. Insert Step 4.7 between current 4.6 (Phase 4a dedup) and 5 (HTML) in SCHEDULED_TASK_PROMPT.md and ~/.claude/scheduled-tasks/rss-smart-task/SKILL.md. Step 4.7 reads pending_stories.json, applies promotion rules, and adds promoted stories to the candidate list. NEW single-source non-urgent ≥4.0 clusters from today get APPENDED to pending_stories.json with hold_until = today + 2 days. Held stories are removed from today's Top Story / Also Noted candidate sets.
3. Update Step 5.5 (state writeback) to also write pending_stories.json (replace, not append).
4. Append v3 to PROMPT_HISTORY.md with full new prompt embedded.
5. Update SYNTHESIS_DEPTH_PLAN.md decision log: Phase 4b → Built (pending soak).
6. Update CLAUDE.md project structure (add pending_stories.json) and pipeline steps.
7. Update .gitignore.

Schedule a Phase 4b assessment as a one-shot scheduled task firing 2026-05-22 at 10:00 local (7-day soak from likely 2026-05-15 build date). Same shape as PHASE4A_ASSESSMENT_PROMPT.md but adapted to Phase 4b's success criteria (held stories actually surface within 2 days; URGENT bypass works; no high-rank stories get permanently lost).

Then propose whether Phase 2 (Google News RSS) is worth pursuing — review whether under-triangulation has been a real pattern in the last 14 days of Phase 1 logs, or if Phase 4a/4b have already addressed the briefing-shape issues.

Decision Prompt B — TUNE

Phase 4a assessment returned TUNE. Read assessments/phase4a-2026-05-03.md for the specific issues.

Apply the recommended tuning to SCHEDULED_TASK_PROMPT.md and the live ~/.claude/scheduled-tasks/rss-smart-task/SKILL.md. Append v3 to PROMPT_HISTORY.md with summary of what changed and why. Extend the soak window 7 more days. Schedule a new one-shot assessment task for 2026-05-22 at 10:00 local using PHASE4A_ASSESSMENT_PROMPT.md as the shape (override the date references).

Do NOT build Phase 4b yet — Phase 4b is gated on Phase 4a returning a clean CONTINUE.

Common tuning levers (the assessment will recommend specific values):
- Fingerprint match Jaccard threshold: 0.5 default. Lower = stricter (more clusters considered fresh, less dedup); higher = looser (more clusters considered duplicates, more dedup).
- Material-update threshold conditions: drop one of the three (rank ≥ 1.5×, +2 RSS, new primary source) if it's producing false positives.
- Carryover decay rate: 0.85 default. 0.80 = faster decay; 0.90 = gentler.
- Carryover max age: 5 default. 3-4 if items feel stale; 7 if too aggressive.
- Briefing floor: 7 default.

Decision Prompt C — ROLLBACK

Phase 4a assessment returned ROLLBACK. Read assessments/phase4a-2026-05-03.md for the evidence.

Revert the daily prompt to v1 (pre-Phase-4a). Steps:
1. Copy the v1 code block from PROMPT_HISTORY.md into both ~/.claude/scheduled-tasks/rss-smart-task/SKILL.md and SCHEDULED_TASK_PROMPT.md (replacing their contents). Update the version line in SCHEDULED_TASK_PROMPT.md back to v1.
2. Append a new entry to PROMPT_HISTORY.md labeled "v3 — Phase 4a rollback" containing the v1 prompt and a short rationale citing the assessment.
3. Update SYNTHESIS_DEPTH_PLAN.md decision log: Phase 4a → Rolled back. Phase 4b → Cancelled (depended on 4a).
4. Leave story_memory.json and carryover_candidates.json on disk but unused. Update CLAUDE.md to mark them as orphaned state files.
5. Do NOT restart Phase 4a immediately — diagnose what failed first.

The three improvements (a/b/c) were proposed for good reasons. If 4a rolled back, propose an alternative design before attempting again — possibly (b) hold queue first as a less invasive change.

Decision Prompt D — EXTEND

Phase 4a assessment returned EXTEND. Read assessments/phase4a-2026-05-03.md for what was missing.

Not enough data to decide yet. Reschedule the assessment for 2026-05-22 at 10:00 local using a new one-shot scheduled task. Reuse PHASE4A_ASSESSMENT_PROMPT.md (override the date references). Do NOT change the prompt; do NOT build Phase 4b. Keep running.

If after the second 7-day extension the data is still incomplete, escalate: investigate whether the daily scheduled task is firing reliably, whether story_memory.json / carryover_candidates.json are being written, and whether briefings are landing in site/briefings/ as expected.